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Background

Data from wastewater monitoring has the potential to complement existing COVID-19 data systems and is most useful in combination with other types of data used to monitor COVID-19. CFA developed a model that uses wastewater data alongside hospital admissions data to forecast COVID-19 hospital admissions at the national and state levels. The model produces forecasts of COVID-19 hospital admissions in three steps. First, we estimate the number of recent SARS-CoV-2 infections by combining data on the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 virus found in wastewater with data on recent hospital admissions due to COVID-19. Next, we use those estimates to anticipate the number of future SARS-CoV-2 infections. Finally, we use these projections to forecast the number of future COVID-19 hospital admissions.

Partnering for Public Health

CFA helps the create a state-based model of COVID-19 hospital admissions using CFA's wastewater-informed forecast model of COVID-19 hospital admissions.

To create the Washington state model, WA DOH shared data with CFA that closely resembled the local wastewater and hospital admissions data. Using this simulated dataset, CFA adapted the wastewater-informed forecasting model with Washington state data. Additionally, CFA modified the model to account for similarities in disease trends between neighboring areas of the state, or that shared similar populations. CFA shared this model with WA DOH and is training their staff to run the new model on actual state data, in the hope that utilizing their data will provide more accurate forecasts of COVID-19 hospital admissions at the state-level.

Future Work

The collaboration between CFA and WA DOH demonstrates the potential for federal and state public health officials to rapidly collaborate to trial cutting-edge analytic methods on local data. Evaluations of these forecast outputs are ongoing, but the inclusion of hyperlocal data in innovative models has the potential to be replicated across other public health issues. Other health departments interested in applying this work and partnering with CFA should contact us.

Acknowledgments

• CFA uses data, modeling, and analytics to respond to outbreaks in real time and inform effective decision-making.

• works with its partners to promote health and well-being and improve health outcomes for all people in Washington state.

• National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) collects and analyses wastewater data to detect infectious diseases in communities.